The PR Measurement Treadmill

PR measurement
I recently heard Shel Holtz on the Oct. 22 edition of his For Immediate Release podcast (with Neville Hobson) talking about the WPP communications conglomerate and its recent stronger-than-expected revenues for PR services. The explanation offered by WPP was that as social media have become more important, effectively placing stories in the mainstream media is more valuable, because that’s what helps seed the social media discussion.

I think that’s exactly backwards.

Some companies may be thinking in this way, but if so they are doing the right thing (increasing their PR focus) for the wrong reasons.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m as big an advocate of social media as you’re likely to meet. And it’s not just because I’m 6′ 6″.

But using mainstream media stories to generate blog buzz is like the Minnesota Vikings giving Adrian Peterson the football to set up their play-action passing game. Having a record-setting rusher does cause the defensive backs to creep closer to the line of scrimmage, which with a competent quarterback (always a question for the Vikings) will enable more long pass completions. But getting Adrian the ball is the strategy; Brooks Bollinger’s improved passing is a welcome byproduct.

Likewise, mainstream media stories are “the real deal.” They are not primarily a means to the end of getting social media buzz. Social media have their biggest punch when they break through to generate mainstream media coverage. Like the guy who tried to cancel AOL. He did a blog post which led to New York Times and NBC Today stories. He didn’t pitch the Times and NBC to get blog traffic.

When his story made the leap from the blogosphere to the mainstream media, it did generate huge traffic to his blog. So much that it crashed his server. But the blog buzz (aside from being an end in itself) was a measure of the attention generated through traditional media. It wasn’t a goal of the mass media stories.

One of the benefits of social media is that they can give a mass media buzz biopsy, as Kami Huyse said in an excerpt of an interview highlighted in the same Oct. 22 FIR podcast. It was part of a report from Eric Schwartzman from the PRSA International conference in Philadelphia. Kami said:

Blogs are wonderful for analytics. You get all kinds of great numbers from blogs. How long did somebody look at a particular article? What did they come search for? How did they come to your site? By what search word? Once they’re in your site…do they use your internal search engine, and what do they search for there? Do they find it, or not?

Then Eric said, “I totally agree with Kami. I believe that the true value of new media communications and online PR is the ability to measure buzz and to prove it with numbers as never before.” You can hear the full interview at Eric’s On the Record podcast.

I agree with both Kami and Eric to a point. If you have skeptical business leaders who don’t believe anything has value unless you can “prove it with numbers,” social media can provide a lot of data.

But blog buzz is only the most immediately measurable byproduct of news media stories. Most word-of-mouth happens away from the web. People used to say “Did you see that story on the news last night?” around the proverbial water cooler. Now it’s at Starbucks. Unfortunately, that buzz can’t be easily or economically measured.

Web traffic, whether to a blog or a traditional web site, is just one concrete way of measuring results. And because web sites give such plentiful data, including counts of “conversions” to the desired consumer action, they are over-valued and over-analyzed.

Social Media tools are like a thermostat. They measure word-of-mouth buzz (temperature) and help send signals to raise (heat) it. And they are particularly effective for niche content that can’t attract a mass audience.

Mass media are like a furnace, kicking out the buzz BTUs. You don’t buy a new furnace to improve your thermostat reading. And if blog traffic is the way you measure your mass media PR, you will seriously underestimate your effectiveness.
If you get mass media coverage through your PR efforts, that’s the big win. And social media engagement is worthwhile in its own right. But mass media stories shouldn’t be seen primarily as means to blog buzz; they are, if not an end in themselves, at least a good in themselves with many consequent benefits, one of which may be blog discussions.

I have two main options for my personal exercise during my winters here on the frozen tundra: playing pick-up basketball or running on a treadmill. With the latter I get “all kinds of great numbers,” such as total time, average miles per hour, something called METS and a seemingly precise measurement calories burned. When I play basketball, however, I don’t get any of those “wonderful analytics,” but I get a lot more whole-body benefit through running and jumping, starting and stopping quickly. And I guarantee that I burn more calories. But I can’t “prove it with numbers.” Precise measurement doesn’t necessarily correlate with greater benefit.

I’m feeling another metaphor coming, but I think I’ll just leave it for now.

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Facebook vs. Google: Ads and Applications

The news this week in the Facebook vs. Google battle for social networking supremacy has been all about applications or widgets. Next week will likely be about advertising. Here’s a review of the week that was and a look forward to what Facebook likely will be announcing to begin its competition on Google’s online advertising turf.

Applications

Don Dodge has a level-headed analysis of Facebook vs. the OpenSocial platform. Facebook may well decide to incorporate Google’s OpenSocial, but developers aren’t going to abandon the Facebook platform. Certainly having MySpace as one of the OpenSocial sites gives it critical mass, but with 50 million Facebook users, the developers will continue to program for it as well as OpenSocial. It really is about the community, and Facebook has that.

Jeremiah Owyang likewise has a good post on what OpenSocial means, as does his colleague Charlene Li. As she says, developers will deploy for Facebook first, before OpenSocial. Her post was written before MySpace joined the OpenSocial junta, but I still think Facebook has the momentum and critical mass of developers. If it takes a few days to produce two versions of an application, one for Facebook and another for OpenSocial, I think it’s likely developers will do both.

Ads

Next week, Facebook is slated to make some big announcements about how its Social Ad network will be implemented. Techcrunch gave a preview last Tuesday, and has updated it with more detailed information, based on some leaked documents, on what Facebook will announce this Tuesday. Search-based advertising with Google is obviously a huge business, but Facebook’s ability to target demographically (particularly as it now will be gathering more opt-in information about user purchases) and to place ads on other sites (not just within Facebook) will give it an opportunity to deliver relevant advertising.

It’s like my recent Netflix experience: I rate movies I’ve seen, and Netflix suggests others I may enjoy. I’m now getting recommendations based on movies I’ve rated, and many of those are ones I’ve already seen. As I continue to rate those, Netflix further refines the recommendations. I see the new Facebook ad program working similarly, but with suggestions coming from my friends, too. Some people are concerned about privacy implications, but users can either opt out or choose to opt in on a purchase-by-purchase basis.

By the way, I have a Facebook Flyers experiment running, testing some different flyers on the pay-per-click Flyers Pro model. So far I’ve spent the princely sum of about $6.5o for about 18,000 impressions. Given that the Flyers Basic program costs $10 for 5,000 impressions and isn’t targeted as well, the PPC program is a better deal. If you don’t get the clicks, you don’t pay. I will be interested to see if the click-throughs lead to people taking the next step.

This week Facebook was on defense as Google (teaming with MySpace) took a run at the Facebook’s platform supremacy; next week Facebook returns the favor with its enhanced ad platform (and if rumors are correct, also will take on MySpace with a new music offering.)

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Netflix Digital Transition Requires Browser Agnosticism

Netflix washington post
The Washington Post has a good article today about Netflix (free subscription may be required) and the transition it needs to make from DVDs by mail to online digital delivery.

“It’s like a three-act play, and we’re in the opening minutes of the second act,” says Steve Swasey, vice president of corporate communications at movie-rental Web site Netflix, as he gives a tour of the company’s Rockville processing center.

Act 1, as far as the company is concerned, was getting people used to renting DVDs over the Internet. Act 3 is “no more DVDs and everything is online.”

Does joining when there are 8 million Netflix customers make me a late adopter? We finally signed up for the two-week free trial yesterday; I love the idea of no late fees and unlimited rentals, and that it offers a Long Tail of selections. For example, in our local video store it’s easy to find the Reloaded and Revolutions sequels to The Matrix, but the original is hard to find. And my wife, Lisa, is looking forward to watching lots of documentaries. We’re looking forward to having access to this huge back catalog.

One initial complaint: the new online viewing feature is for Windows only, and only for Internet Explorer 6 and newer. It’s one thing for corporate IT departments to mandate Windows-only, but a company that wants to sell to the home market (like Netflix) will be missing market share with such an approach. In the last quarter, the Mac’s market share grew to 8.1 percent of the U.S. market. Given the Windows dominance of the corporate IT world, that means the Apple share is even stronger among home users.

Second complaint: I tried to view videos on my daughter’s Windows XP machine in IE 7, so I downloaded and installed the Netflix client software (after downloading IE 7 because it wasn’t compatible with Firefox). Then when I tried to watch season 1 of The Office, it just prompted me again to install the software. Never got to watch it.

I’m sure the DVDs will be great when they arrive Tuesday. Obviously, as Mike Musgrove’s article describes, Netflix has the system for delivering DVDs well orchestrated. But support for Macintosh and browsers other than Internet Explorer will be a key to Netflix successfully making the transition to digital delivery.

Apple’s iTunes obviously serves both Macintosh and Windows. The TV networks, in their ad-supported streaming of their primetime shows, support both platforms and don’t limit to one particular browser. Netflix doesn’t seem to have a true competitor in the DVD-delivery business, but it will have serious competitors in digital delivery.

Microsoft now has less than 65 percent of the browser market. If Netflix continues to ignore more than a third of the potential users of its movie streaming service, it will not be successful in its DVD-to-Digital transition.

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Welcome Associations Now Readers

Associations Now
Late last month I got a nice note from Lisa Junker, editor of Associations Now, the magazine of the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership. She said…

We’re putting together a special supplement to our magazine on social media, and when I came across your 12-step social media program post, I thought it could be a great match for our supplement (and our audience), if you’d be interested in allowing me to reprint the post.

What I’d like to do is reprint your post, edited somewhat for space, on the back page of our social media supplement. I think the humor and common-sense ideas you share in this particular post would be a great way to encourage our readers who haven’t dipped their toes in the social-media pool yet to do so. I would send the edited version to you for approval before publication, of course.

In case you’re not familiar with ASAE & The Center, we’re a membership organization representing 22,000 association executives and professionals—individuals who work for associations ranging from the largest and best-known, like AARP and NRA, to the less-well-known, like the American Industrial Hygiene Association. Associations Now is our flagship publication, and this supplement will be mailed to all ASAE & The Center members along with our November issue.

I was honored, of course, and was delighted to have Lisa edit and improve my post. It’s flattering to have someone say they think your writing is worth the paper they want to print it on. And everyone needs an editor. Especially when you have a blog that gives you unlimited space to keep going, and going, and going…

I understand Associations Now is starting to hit the mailboxes, so I wanted to share a few links with any of Lisa’s readers who are interested in further exploring social media. Here’s the full version of my 12-Step Social Media Program. I also would recommend the Facebook Business page. Check out It’s All Free to explore how you can get involved with social media without support from your IT department and without paying a penny. Everything you see here on this blog is absolutely free: I haven’t spent a penny for it.

If you like what you see here, you can subscribe to my RSS feed, get updates by email, Friend me in Facebook, or follow me in Twitter to get notification when I write something new.

I would appreciate any comments or ideas, and look forward to having you join the social media conversation.

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Facebook > WSJ + Chicago Tribune + LA Times + Chicago Cubs + YouTube

facebook microsoft deal
So you still don’t think Facebook is a big deal? Today’s Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft (MSFT) has agreed to purchase a 1.6 percent stake in Facebook for $240 million. That pegs the overall value of Facebook at $15 billion.

In the real estate world, when setting a market price for a house my friends Ben Martin (or at least the people in his Virginia Association of Realtors) and Daniel Rothamel look at what they call “comparables.” They ask, “What price have similar houses in the neighborhood brought recently?” Let’s look at the comparables for Facebook. In roughly the last year:

  • Rupert Murdoch’s Newscorp paid $5 billion for the venerable Wall Street Journal
  • Sam Zell bought the Chicago Tribune (which owns the Chicago Cubs and had earlier purchased the Los Angeles Times), for $8 billion
  • Google (GOOG) gobbled YouTube for $1.65 billion
  • Avista Capital acquired the Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune (and a few blocks of prime downtown real estate) for $530 million.

Add them all together, and they’re barely equal to the valuation Microsoft placed on Facebook.

Which just shows that for Facebook there really aren’t any comparables. Why?

  • Facebook has 85 percent of college students in its network, and a similar percentage of recent graduates. At a conference I attended earlier this year, I heard that David’s Bridal has found that people spend more money in the five years after they get married than they do in any five-year period. Facebook has the ability to help advertisers reach these people in their golden spending years. If, as David Walker said about Medicare, “Demographics are destiny,” Facebook’s future is bright indeed.
  • Facebook’s growth in other demographics is similarly astonishing. In adding 200,000 new users per day, Facebook ran out of college students to bring in a long time ago. The great majority of the growth this year has been in older adults and internationally. Shel Israel said yesterday that in Israel, where the primary language is Hebrew, Facebook now has nearly 100,000 users, which is up 33 percent in the last 9 days.
  • Facebook users don’t (mostly) just sign up for an account and forget it. Over half of its users visit the site at least once a day, and the average time spent on Facebook is 20 minutes per day.

I will confess that when it was reported last year that Mark Zuckerberg had turned down $1 billion or more for Facebook, I thought he would regret it.

That was before I actually tried Facebook. If you haven’t tried it, you should. Shel Israel says it’s the most beneficial professional networking tool he has ever used. My other friend Shel, Shel Holtz, and his partner (in the podcasting sense) Neville Hobson, in their For Immediate Release podcast for PR professionals, talk about Facebook in every program. They’ve joked that they have a rule that they have to mention Facebook at least once in each of their twice-weekly podcasts, but the reality is Facebook is that important.

Steve Ballmer obviously thinks so. And if you’re in sales, marketing, PR or have any need for professional networking, so should you.

Lest Shel Israel take me to task for that last line, I want to emphasize that you need to understand Facebook and social networking, and not see it as just another channel to force-feed your marketing messages to a captive audience. They (we) are not an audience. We’re creating content, too. Markets are conversations, and that involves both speaking and listening.

Microsoft is betting big that Facebook is where a lot of those conversations will be happening.

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